Dynamics of inductive inference in a unified framework
نویسندگان
چکیده
We present a model of inductive inference that includes, as special cases, Bayesian reasoning, case-based reasoning, and rulebased reasoning. This unified framework allows us to examine, positively or normatively, how the various modes of inductive inference can be combined and how their relative weights change endogenously. We establish conditions under which an agent who does not know the structure of the data generating process will decrease, over the course of her reasoning, the weight of credence put on Bayesian vs. non-Bayesian reasoning. We show that even random data can make certain theories seem plausible and hence increase the weight of rule-based vs. case-based reasoning, leading the agent in some cases to cycle between being rule-based and case-based. We identify conditions under which minmax regret criteria will not be effective. We thank Dirk Bergemann, Eddie Dekel, Drew Fudernberg, Gabi Gayer, Offer Lieberman, George Mailath, the editors and three referees for comments and suggestions. Tel-Aviv University, HEC, Paris, and Cowles Foundation, Yale University. ISF Grant 396/10 and ERC Grant 269754 are gratefully acknowledged. Department of Economics, Yale University. National Science Foundation grant SES0850263 is gratefully acknowledged. The Ohio State University and Tel-Aviv University.
منابع مشابه
DYNAMICS OF INDUCTIVE INFERENCE IN A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK By
We present a model of inductive inference that includes, as special cases, Bayesian reasoning, case-based reasoning, and rulebased reasoning. This unified framework allows us to examine, positively or normatively, how the various modes of inductive inference can be combined and how their relative weights change endogenously. We establish conditions under which an agent who does not know the str...
متن کاملThe Role of Computer Anxiety in Acceptance of Iranian Public Library Management System Based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology
Purpose: The main purpose of this study was to measure the acceptance and role of computer anxiety among the users of public libraries in Kerman province while using Iranian Public Library Management System (SAMAN) within the framework of the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT). Method: This is an applied study in terms of purpose and a descriptive study conducted using ...
متن کاملCharacterizing Web Service Substitutivity with Combined Deductive and Inductive Engines
This paper proposes a lightweight mechanism to combine deductive and inductive inference engines and describes an application in which the resulting functionality is shown to add significant value. Within the unified setting of deductive database technology and inductive logic programming, the combination of inference engines is much easier and the resulting systems much better integrated. This...
متن کاملProbability Disassembled
While there is no universal logic of induction, the probability calculus succeeds as a logic of induction in many contexts through its use of several notions concerning inductive inference. They include Addition, through which low probabilities represent disbelief as opposed to ignorance; and Bayes property, which commits the calculus to a ‘refute and rescale’ dynamics for incorporating new evi...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- J. Economic Theory
دوره 148 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2013